Every year, millions of Americans pack their bags and move to a new state—whether for work, family reasons, a change in climate, or any other reason. Migration and natural population changes resulting from births and deaths can lead to significant demographic shifts, which have consequences for local economies and governments.
Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities— which, in turn, can drive more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments, limited funding for public works and services, and a reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations.
According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Florida’s population is projected to grow by 32.0% between 2020 and 2040 —an increase of more than 7 million people. If the Cooper Center’s projections hold true, Florida’s ranking as the third most populous state will remain unchanged, even when taking into account population changes in other states.
The projected change is in line with the trend of the past decade. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people living in Florida increased by 16.4%, or 3,075,947 people.
In 2019, Florida was the top destination for people moving from other U.S. states, according to a survey by the moving company U-Haul. The state was also the top destination for Americans relocating in 2020, according to the website move.org. According to the state’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, an estimated 329,717 new residents settled in Florida between April 2020 and April 2021.
According to the NAR (National Association of Realtors), a total of 8.9 million people have moved since the start of the pandemic. The Association reports that about 28% of the people who moved to Florida came from Texas, and another 15% moved from New York, with just over 6% coming from California.
Check Out the Rankings
Below is a ranking of the most populous states and the projected growth for each one through 2040. Florida is expected to remain the third most populous state in the country, given the projected growth for the other states.